Category Archives: Contemporary American Politics

The Speaker Vote: 6 January 2015

Updated 30 January 2015 Below is the vote to elect John Boehner (R-OH) as Speaker of the House. The actual roll call was 216 for Boehner, 164 for Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), 24 Republicans voted for other Republicans, 4 Democrats voted … Continue reading

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An Update on the Presidential Square Wave

Below we plot the first dimension DW-NOMINATE Common Space scores of the presidents in the post-war period, which we refer to as the “presidential square wave” due to its shape. An ideological score is estimated for each president throughout the … Continue reading

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Senate Polarization after the 2014 Elections

Though partisan polarization has increased dramatically in both chambers of Congress over recent decades, it has beenmore pronounced in the House than the Senate. There is reason to believe that yesterday’s midterm elections will narrow this gap, increasing the ideological … Continue reading

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How Conservative is Eric Cantor?

Tonight comes the surprising news of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s (R-VA) primary upset by a Tea Party challenger. Just how conservative (or not) is Rep. Cantor? Using DW-NOMINATE Common Space scores (which measure the ideological positions of Members of … Continue reading

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Southern Realignment through the 2012 Elections

Below we provide updated data on the southern realignment through the 2012 elections. Continuing gains among white voters has led to an increasingly Republican South (which we count as the 11 states of the Confederacy plus Kentucky and Oklahoma). In … Continue reading

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Voters’ Ideological Perceptions of 2014 Senate Candidates

In this post we use Bayesian Aldrich-McKelvey scaling to analyze voters’ perceptions of the ideological positions of Senators and Senate candidates who will be running in close races in 2014 (we also describe the Bayesian Aldrich-McKelvey scaling method in our … Continue reading

Posted in Contemporary American Politics, Issue Scaling, Political Polarization | Leave a comment

An Update on the Presidential Square Wave through 2013

Below we plot the first dimension DW-NOMINATE Common Space scores of the presidents in the post-war period, which we refer to as the “presidential square wave” due to its shape. An ideological score is estimated for each president throughout the … Continue reading

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Political Polarization and Income Inequality

Two topics that will likely get a lot of attention in President Obama’s State of the Union address are gridlock and income inequality. In this post, we detail how trends in income inequality and political polarization are strongly intertwined with … Continue reading

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Intra-Party Divides over Domestic Surveillance

Following Nate Silver’s analysis of how the issue of domestic surveillance divides the parties internally, below we use Optimal Classification (OC) in R to analyze the 112th House and Senate’s votes to renew the Patriot Act and the FISA (Foreign … Continue reading

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The Senate Judiciary Committee’s Vote on Comprehensive Immigration Reform and a Prediction of the Full Senate Vote

Below we use Optimal Classification (OC) in R to plot the Senate Judiciary Committee’s 13-5 vote in favor of a comprehensive immigration reform package that was originated by the bipartisan “Gang of Eight” group in the Senate, including Senator Marco … Continue reading

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