The Iraq War Vote (11 October 2002)


Below are histograms of the Iraq War votes in the House and Senate respectively. The histograms are over the first dimension of DW-NOMINATE coordinates for the 107th House and Senate. The red bars are "Yea" votes in the indicated range on the dimension, and the blue bars are "Nay" votes. The "Yea" voters are almost all from center right to far right while the "Nay" voters are mostly center left to far left. The vote in the House split the Democrats more clearly along spatial lines than the vote in the Senate. The individual votes are shown below.




Below are simple rank-orderings from left to right of the members of the 107th Senate and House. The rank orderings were produced by the Optimal Classification (OC) algorithm described in:

"Non-Parametric Unfolding of Binary Choice Data." Political Analysis, 8:211-237, 2000.

The rank orderings shown below are those that maximize the number of correctly classified roll call votes. To see how this is done, go to this page:

How Optimal Classification (OC) Works in One Dimension

The OC Scaling Program and examples can be downloaded from the OC Scaling Program Page.

For the 107th Senate, the overall correct classification is 91.1% with an aggregate proportional reduction in error (APRE) of .751 using roll calls through June of 2002. In the ordering below, the number just to the right of the Senator's name is the classification error and the number to the right of that is the total number of roll calls cast by the Senator. For example, placing Senator Wellstone at rank 1.0 (of 101 total Senators -- Jeffords is counted twice) only resulted in 7 classification errors out of a total of 423 (non-unanimous) votes cast. The proportion correct is (423-7)/423 = .983 (which is shown just to the left of the rank).

To the right of the rank are Yeas and Nays on the Iraq War Resolution. To the right of the Iraq War Resolution Vote is how the Senator voted on the 1991 Gulf War Resolution ("--" means they were not in the Senate in 1991).

The vote was 77-23 and was primarily along liberal-conservative lines. With a cutpoint between Leay and Schumer there are 12 spatial errors (4 below the cutpoint and 8 above the cutpoint). The percent correctly predicted was 88% and the PRE was .478. (Scroll Down to see the House.)

 107 49101 33 MINNESO D  WELLSTONE      7  423   0.983   1.000  NO    NO
 107 49309 25 WISCONS D  FEINGOLD      72  424   0.830   2.000  NO    --      
 107 40104 12 NEW JER D  CORZINE       26  422   0.938   3.000  NO    --
 107 14230 31 IOWA    D  HARKIN        24  419   0.943   4.500  YES   NO
 107 40101 33 MINNESO D  DAYTON        16  412   0.961   4.500  NO    --
 107 15021 21 ILLINOI D  DURBIN        23  422   0.945   6.500  NO    --
 107 15011 71 CALIFOR D  BOXER         22  410   0.946   6.500  NO    --
 107 10808  3 MASSACH D  KENNEDY  ED   19  412   0.954   8.000  NO    NO
 107 29142  5 RHODE I D  REED          14  423   0.967   9.000  NO    --              
 107 13039 52 MARYLAN D  SARBANES       6  424   0.986  10.000  NO    NO
 107 14920  3 MASSACH D  KERRY  JOHN   15  415   0.964  11.000  YES   NO
 107 14922 56 WEST VI D  ROCKEFELLER   27  419   0.936  12.000  YES   NO
 107 14440 52 MARYLAN D  MIKULSKI      17  421   0.960  14.000  NO    NO
 107  4812 82 HAWAII  D  INOUYE        23  398   0.942  14.000  NO    NO
 107 14709 23 MICHIGA D  LEVIN  CARL   20  424   0.953  14.000  NO    NO
 107 14400 82 HAWAII  D  AKAKA         22  400   0.945  16.500  NO    NO
 107 40105 13 NEW YOR D  CLINTON       26  420   0.938  16.500  YES   --
 107 29732 23 MICHIGA D  STABENOW      29  423   0.931  18.000  NO    -- ******************************
 107 14307  6 VERMONT D  LEAHY         18  418   0.957  19.000  NO    NO  Cutpoint -- NO Below, YES Above
 107 14858 13 NEW YOR D  SCHUMER       37  418   0.911  20.000  YES   -- ******************************
 107 14213  1 CONNECT D  DODD          23  409   0.944  21.500  YES   NO
 107 11204 48 SOUTH C D  HOLLINGS      41  423   0.903  21.500  YES   NO
 107 15054 65 NEVADA  D  REID          18  422   0.957  23.000  YES   YES
 107 14101 11 DELAWAR D  BIDEN         33  416   0.921  24.000  YES   NO
 107 14617 37 SOUTH D D  DASCHLE       19  407   0.953  25.000  YES   NO
 107 39310 73 WASHING D  CANTWELL      30  422   0.929  26.500  YES   --
 107 49308 73 WASHING D  MURRAY        29  419   0.931  26.500  NO    --
 107 95704  1 CONNECT D  LIEBERMAN     27  415   0.935  28.000  YES   YES
 107 14651 43 FLORIDA D  NELSON  CLA   40  422   0.905  29.000  YES   --
 107 15503 43 FLORIDA D  GRAHAM  BOB   39  424   0.908  30.000  NO    YES
 107 14871 72 OREGON  D  WYDEN         46  424   0.892  31.000  NO    --
 107 14912 66 NEW MEX D  BINGAMAN      41  410   0.900  32.000  NO    NO
 107 49902 47 NORTH C D  EDWARDS       24  422   0.943  33.000  YES   --
 107  1366 56 WEST VI D  BYRD  ROBER   59  423   0.861  34.000  NO    NO
 107 14812 36 NORTH D D  DORGAN        28  421   0.933  35.000  YES   --
 107 15502 36 NORTH D D  CONRAD        41  423   0.903  36.000  NO    NO
 107 15703 25 WISCONS D  KOHL          29  410   0.929  37.000  YES   NO
 107 49300 71 CALIFOR D  FEINSTEIN     46  419   0.890  38.000  YES   --
 107 15425 37 SOUTH D D  JOHNSON       35  419   0.916  39.000  YES   --
 107 40102 34 MISSOUR D  CARNAHAN      40  417   0.904  40.500  YES   --
 107 15071 12 NEW JER D  TORRICELLI    56  404   0.861  40.500  YES   --
 107 40103 35 NEBRASK D  NELSON  BEN   51  422   0.879  42.000  YES   --
 107 94240  6 VERMONT I  JEFFORDS      28  261   0.893  43.000  NO    YES
 107 49901 22 INDIANA D  BAYH          52  423   0.877  44.000  YES   --
 107 40100 11 DELAWAR D  CARPER        53  421   0.874  45.000  YES   --
 107 49702 45 LOUISIA D  LANDRIEU      42  416   0.899  46.000  YES   --
 107 49701 44 GEORGIA D  CLELAND       49  422   0.884  47.000  YES   --
 107 29305 42 ARKANSA D  LINCOLN       34  422   0.919  48.000  YES   --
 107 14203 64 MONTANA D  BAUCUS        41  416   0.901  49.000  YES   NO
 107 13056 45 LOUISIA D  BREAUX        41  419   0.902  50.000  YES   YES
 107 49905  5 RHODE I R  CHAFEE        73  423   0.827  51.000  NO    --
 107 49904 44 GEORGIA D  MILLER        57  403   0.859  52.000  YES   --
 107 14910 14 PENNSYL R  SPECTER       67  421   0.841  53.000  YES   YES
 107 14240  6 VERMONT R  JEFFORDS      22  143   0.846  54.000
 107 14661  2 MAINE   R  SNOWE         49  424   0.884  55.000  YES   --
 107 49703  2 MAINE   R  COLLINS       56  424   0.868  56.000  YES   --
 107 15039 61 ARIZONA R  MCCAIN       111  405   0.726  57.000  YES   YES
 107 49705 72 OREGON  R  SMITH  GORD   57  419   0.864  58.000  YES   --
 107 49900 21 ILLINOI R  FITZGERALD    75  402   0.813  59.000  YES   --
 107 15020 24 OHIO    R  DEWINE        40  424   0.906  60.000  YES   --
 107 14712 40 VIRGINI R  WARNER        36  417   0.914  61.000  YES   YES
 107 14009 46 MISSISS R  COCHRAN       39  424   0.908  62.000  YES   YES
 107 95407 62 COLORAD R  CAMPBELL      33  409   0.919  63.000  YES   --
 107 94659 41 ALABAMA R  SHELBY        42  415   0.899  64.000  YES   YES
 107 12109 81 ALASKA  R  STEVENS       30  379   0.921  65.000  YES   YES
 107 29306 42 ARKANSA R  HUTCHINSON    39  417   0.906  66.000  YES   --
 107 49306 49 TEXAS   R  HUTCHISON     41  416   0.901  67.000  YES   --
 107 14103 66 NEW MEX R  DOMENICI      26  374   0.930  68.000  YES   YES
 107 14907 81 ALASKA  R  MURKOWSKI     26  394   0.934  69.000  YES   YES
 107 15701 64 MONTANA R  BURNS         24  410   0.941  70.000  YES   YES
 107 29345 63 IDAHO   R  CRAPO         20  408   0.951  71.000  YES   --
 107 14809 63 IDAHO   R  CRAIG         19  421   0.955  72.000  YES   YES
 107 15501 34 MISSOUR R  BOND          32  416   0.923  73.000  YES   YES
 107 14226 31 IOWA    R  GRASSLEY      40  424   0.906  74.000  YES   NO
 107 14852 32 KANSAS  R  ROBERTS       24  419   0.943  75.000  YES   --
 107 14506 22 INDIANA R  LUGAR         39  424   0.908  76.000  YES   YES
 107 14921 51 KENTUCK R  MCCONNELL     17  424   0.960  77.000  YES   YES
 107 29148 40 VIRGINI R  ALLEN         38  421   0.910  78.000  YES   --
 107 49307 67 UTAH    R  BENNETT       21  411   0.949  79.000  YES   --
 107 14503 67 UTAH    R  HATCH         25  414   0.940  80.000  YES   YES
 107 49704 35 NEBRASK R  HAGEL         35  418   0.916  81.000  YES   --
 107 49903 24 OHIO    R  VOINOVICH     51  415   0.877  82.000  YES   --
 107 49502 54 TENNESS R  FRIST         19  417   0.954  83.000  YES   --
 107  9369 48 SOUTH C R  THURMOND      30  414   0.928  84.000  YES   YES
 107 15424 53 OKLAHOM R  INHOFE        27  409   0.934  85.000  YES   --
 107 15406 51 KENTUCK R  BUNNING       23  418   0.945  86.500  YES   --
 107 29523 32 KANSAS  R  BROWNBACK     36  416   0.913  86.500  YES   --
 107 49700 41 ALABAMA R  SESSIONS      41  409   0.900  88.000  YES   --
 107 29141 14 PENNSYL R  SANTORUM      21  418   0.950  89.000  YES   --
 107 49706 68 WYOMING R  ENZI          31  412   0.925  90.000  YES   --
 107 29537 65 NEVADA  R  ENSIGN        54  407   0.867  91.000  YES   --
 107 49503 54 TENNESS R  THOMPSON      42  413   0.898  92.000  YES   --
 107 15633 68 WYOMING R  THOMAS        22  413   0.947  93.000  YES   --
 107 14826  4 NEW HAM R  GREGG         49  411   0.881  94.000  YES   --
 107 14031 46 MISSISS R  LOTT          18  414   0.957  95.000  YES   YES
 107 29108 62 COLORAD R  ALLARD        20  423   0.953  96.000  YES   --
 107 15116  4 NEW HAM R  SMITH  ROBE   35  420   0.917  97.000  YES   YES
 107 14908 53 OKLAHOM R  NICKLES  DO   25  421   0.941  98.000  YES   YES
 107 14628 49 TEXAS   R  GRAMM  PHIL   26  408   0.936  99.000  YES   YES
 107 14105 47 NORTH C R  HELMS         15  333   0.955 100.000  YES   YES
 107 15429 61 ARIZONA R  KYL           19  421   0.955 101.000  YES   --

Below is the rank ordering for the 107th House along with the Iraq War Resolution Vote. The vote was 296 - 133 and was largely along liberal-conservative lines. With the cutpoint between Gonzalez (D-TX) and Crowley (D-NY), there are 46 spatial errors (23 below the cutpoint and 26 above the cutpoint). The percent correctly predicted was 89.3% and the PRE was .654.

 107 29325 71 50 CALIFOR D FILNER        24  544   0.956   1.000  NO
 107 29106 71 35 CALIFOR D WATERS        35  520   0.933   2.000  NO
 107 29748 24 10 OHIO    D KUCINICH      72  550   0.869   3.000  NO
 107 15613 73  7 WASHING D MCDERMOTT     34  535   0.936   4.000  NO
 107 15410 72  4 OREGON  D DEFAZIO       39  526   0.926   5.000  NO
 107 29360 23  1 MICHIGA D STUPAK        88  532   0.835   6.000  NO
 107 29919  3  8 MASSACH D CAPUANO  MI   36  537   0.933   7.000  NO
 107 14656 33  5 MINNESO D SABO          59  547   0.892   8.000  NO
 107 29901 71  1 CALIFOR D THOMPSON  M   76  544   0.860   9.000  NO
 107 15124 22  1 INDIANA D VISCLOSKY     80  532   0.850  10.000  NO
 107 29924 66  3 NEW MEX D UDALL  TOM    59  554   0.894  11.500  NO
 107 14265 33  8 MINNESO D OBERSTAR      52  546   0.905  11.500  NO
 107 29302 41  7 ALABAMA D HILLIARD      93  549   0.831  13.000  NO
 107 15614 13 21 NEW YOR D MCNULTY       86  550   0.844  14.500  YES
 107 29368 46  2 MISSISS D THOMPSON      76  528   0.856  14.500  NO
 107 29777 14  1 PENNSYL D BRADY  ROBE   54  540   0.900  16.000  NO
 107 29337 43 23 FLORIDA D HASTINGS      63  515   0.878  17.000  NO
 107 14053 71 13 CALIFOR D STARK         52  484   0.893  18.000  NO
 107 29380 13 26 NEW YOR D HINCHEY       43  539   0.920  19.000  NO
 107 14256 71  7 CALIFOR D MILLER  GEO   39  532   0.927  20.000  NO
 107 29123  3  1 MASSACH D OLVER         40  545   0.927  21.000  NO
 107 15444 13 28 NEW YOR D SLAUGHTER     31  522   0.941  22.000  NO
 107 29930 24 11 OHIO    D JONES  STEP   38  504   0.925  23.000  NO
 107 29911 21  9 ILLINOI D SCHAKOWSKY    30  544   0.945  24.000  NO
 107 29729  3  3 MASSACH D MCGOVERN      33  552   0.940  25.000  NO
 107 14407 23 10 MICHIGA D BONIOR        53  517   0.897  26.000  NO
 107 39305 49 30 TEXAS   D JOHNSON  ED   66  527   0.875  27.000  NO
 107 29931 72  1 OREGON  D WU  DAVID    102  551   0.815  28.500  NO
 107 12036 25  7 WISCONS D OBEY          52  538   0.903  28.500  NO
 107 29923 12 12 NEW JER D HOLT  RUSH    65  548   0.881  30.000  NO
 107 29940 25  2 WISCONS D BALDWIN  TA   36  542   0.934  31.500  NO
 107 14435  3  7 MASSACH D MARKEY        30  546   0.945  31.500  YES
 107 29571 49 10 TEXAS   D DOGGETT       53  552   0.904  33.000  NO
 107 14824  3  4 MASSACH D FRANK  BARN   41  547   0.925  34.000  NO
 107 29120 45  2 LOUISIA D JEFFERSON     58  517   0.888  36.500  YES
 107 20106 71 32 CALIFOR D WATSON        31  410   0.924  36.500  NO
 107 10713 23 14 MICHIGA D CONYERS       49  510   0.904  36.500  NO
 107 10757 82  2 HAWAII  D MINK          47  541   0.913  36.500
 107 15072 13 10 NEW YOR D TOWNS         57  509   0.888  39.000  NO
 107 15448 71  8 CALIFOR D PELOSI        28  543   0.948  40.500  NO
 107 29778 71  9 CALIFOR D LEE           51  548   0.907  40.500  NO
 107 20103 71 15 CALIFOR D HONDA         32  547   0.941  42.000  NO
 107 20105 71 31 CALIFOR D SOLIS         25  538   0.954  43.500  NO
 107 29710 62  1 COLORAD D DEGETTE       36  537   0.933  43.500  NO
 107 29731  3 10 MASSACH D DELAHUNT      42  520   0.919  45.000  NO
 107 20119  3  9 MASSACH D LYNCH         24  254   0.906  46.500  YES
 107 29588 72  3 OREGON  D BLUMENAUER    55  526   0.895  46.500  NO
 107 29504 71 16 CALIFOR D LOFGREN       59  542   0.891  48.500  NO
 107 29147  6  1 VERMONT I SANDERS       33  536   0.938  48.500  NO
 107 29309 71  6 CALIFOR D WOOLSEY       28  543   0.948  50.000  NO
 107 29377 13  8 NEW YOR D NADLER        26  531   0.951  51.000  NO
 107 15619 12 10 NEW JER D PAYNE  DONA   43  532   0.919  52.500  NO
 107 29730  3  6 MASSACH D TIERNEY       33  547   0.940  52.500  NO
 107 29378 13 12 NEW YOR D VELAZQUEZ     40  538   0.926  54.000  NO
 107 29389 24 13 OHIO    D BROWN  SHER   49  551   0.911  56.000  NO
 107 15050 13 11 NEW YOR D OWENS  MAJO   35  523   0.933  56.000  NO
 107 29906 62  2 COLORAD D UDALL  MARK   64  543   0.882  56.000  NO
 107 39315 25  5 WISCONS D BARRETT  TH   45  543   0.917  58.000  NO
 107 29585 21  2 ILLINOI D JACKSON       43  555   0.923  59.000  NO
 107 29717 21  7 ILLINOI D DAVIS         30  532   0.944  60.000  NO
 107 15431 44  5 GEORGIA D LEWIS  JOHN   47  506   0.907  61.000  NO
 107 14808 14 14 PENNSYL D COYNE  WILL   24  525   0.954  63.500  NO
 107 12009 34  1 MISSOUR D CLAY          50  509   0.902  63.500  NO
 107 29317 71 33 CALIFOR D ROYBAL-ALLA   23  542   0.958  63.500  NO
 107 29313 71 17 CALIFOR D FARR          29  551   0.947  63.500  NO
 107 29733 23 15 MICHIGA D KILPATRICK    34  515   0.934  66.000  NO
 107 29344 44  4 GEORGIA D MCKINNEY      59  522   0.887  67.000  NO
 107 29531 23 13 MICHIGA D RIVERS        46  542   0.915  69.000  NO
 107 29383 47 12 NORTH C D WATT          44  542   0.919  69.000  NO
 107 29559 14  2 PENNSYL D FATTAH        43  527   0.918  69.000  NO
 107 29346 21  1 ILLINOI D RUSH          38  504   0.925  71.000  NO
 107 29382 47  1 NORTH C D CLAYTON       32  523   0.939  73.000  NO
 107 15029 24  9 OHIO    D KAPTUR        51  523   0.902  73.000  NO
 107 14448 56  3 WEST VI D RAHALL        81  548   0.852  73.000  NO
 107 29134 13 16 NEW YOR D SERRANO       33  524   0.937  75.000  NO
 107 29587 52  7 MARYLAN D CUMMINGS      37  543   0.932  76.500  NO
 107 29573 49 18 TEXAS   D JACKSON-LEE   48  532   0.910  76.500  NO
 107 20122 33  4 MINNESO D MCCOLLUM      22  548   0.960  79.000  NO
 107 15454 12  6 NEW JER D PALLONE       69  554   0.875  79.000  NO
 107 29379 13 14 NEW YOR D MALONEY       38  547   0.931  79.000  YES
 107 29348 21  4 ILLINOI D GUTIERREZ     45  503   0.911  83.000  NO
 107 14039  3  9 MASSACH D MOAKLEY        2   47   0.957  83.000
 107 14421 34  3 MISSOUR D GEPHARDT      43  523   0.918  83.000  YES
 107 29720 22 10 INDIANA D CARSON        36  526   0.932  83.000  NO
 107 13035 13 15 NEW YOR D RANGEL  CHA   38  533   0.929  83.000  NO
 107 14248 13 29 NEW YOR D LAFALCE       57  539   0.894  86.500  NO
 107 15023 21 17 ILLINOI D EVANS  LANE   43  550   0.922  86.500  NO
 107 29358  3  5 MASSACH D MEEHAN        28  527   0.947  89.000  YES
 107 15442 24 14 OHIO    D SAWYER        23  548   0.958  89.000  NO
 107 15616  3  2 MASSACH D NEAL  RICHA   39  535   0.927  89.000  NO
 107 15245 82  1 HAWAII  D ABERCROMBIE   84  532   0.842  91.500  NO
 107 29316 71 30 CALIFOR D BECERRA       30  507   0.941  91.500  NO
 107  2605 23 16 MICHIGA D DINGELL       62  524   0.882  93.500  NO
 107 29715 43 19 FLORIDA D WEXLER        30  503   0.940  93.500  YES
 107 29709 71 46 CALIFOR D SANCHEZ       61  540   0.887  95.500  NO
 107 20136  5  2 RHODE I D LANGEVIN      58  554   0.895  95.500  NO
 107 29586 71 37 CALIFOR D MILLENDER-M   20  505   0.960  97.500  NO
 107 14837 71 12 CALIFOR D LANTOS        29  535   0.946  97.500  YES
 107 29903 71 34 CALIFOR D NAPOLITANO    28  538   0.948  99.000  NO
 107 29716 21  5 ILLINOI D BLAGOJEVICH   41  478   0.914 101.500  YES
 107 15603 13 17 NEW YOR D ENGEL         31  524   0.941 101.500  YES
 107 29533 33  6 MINNESO D LUTHER        40  527   0.924 101.500  YES
 107 29926 13  9 NEW YOR D WEINER  ANT   35  548   0.936 101.500  YES
 107 29535 34  5 MISSOUR D MCCARTHY      36  547   0.934 104.500  NO                 
 107 15612 13 18 NEW YOR D LOWEY         23  545   0.958 104.500  YES
 107 29937 73  1 WASHING D INSLEE  JAY   44  549   0.920 106.000  NO
 107 15005 71 26 CALIFOR D BERMAN        32  519   0.938 108.000  YES
 107 14280 71 29 CALIFOR D WAXMAN        26  507   0.949 108.000  YES
 107 29750 72  5 OREGON  D HOOLEY        54  551   0.902 108.000  NO
 107 15000 13  5 NEW YOR D ACKERMAN      35  516   0.932 110.500  YES
 107 20108 71 49 CALIFOR D DAVIS         40  554   0.928 110.500  NO
 107 29771 49 28 TEXAS   D RODRIGUEZ     44  537   0.918 113.500  NO
 107 29742 12  9 NEW JER D ROTHMAN       41  517   0.921 113.500  YES
 107 29312 71 14 CALIFOR D ESHOO         47  540   0.913 113.500  NO
 107 15082 25  4 WISCONS D KLECZKA       45  546   0.918 113.500  NO
 107 29707 71 24 CALIFOR D SHERMAN       34  555   0.939 116.500  YES
 107 29109  1  3 CONNECT D DELAURO       25  554   0.955 116.500  NO
 107 29330 43  5 FLORIDA D THURMAN       52  550   0.905 119.000  YES
 107 29728  2  1 MAINE   D ALLEN         36  540   0.933 119.000  NO
 107 39307 40  3 VIRGINI D SCOTT         53  549   0.903 119.000  NO
 107 29934 14 13 PENNSYL D HOEFFEL  JO   31  551   0.944 121.000  YES
 107 15008 14  3 PENNSYL D BORSKI        88  543   0.838 122.000  YES
 107 29335 43 20 FLORIDA D DEUTSCH       41  523   0.922 124.000  YES
 107 29922 65  1 NEVADA  D BERKLEY  SH   53  551   0.904 124.000  YES
 107 29774 71 22 CALIFOR D CAPPS  LOIS   31  550   0.944 124.000  NO
 107 15438 47  4 NORTH C D PRICE  DAVI   38  551   0.931 126.000  NO
 107 29908  1  1 CONNECT D LARSON  JOH   45  541   0.917 127.000  NO
 107 29741 12  8 NEW JER D PASCRELL      52  552   0.906 128.500  YES
 107 14649 71  5 CALIFOR D MATSUI        30  551   0.946 128.500  NO
 107 29101 61  2 ARIZONA D PASTOR        48  554   0.913 130.500  NO
 107 39304 49 29 TEXAS   D GREEN  GENE   64  551   0.884 130.500  YES
 107 39301 48  6 SOUTH C D CLYBURN       57  549   0.896 133.500  NO
 107 29334 43 17 FLORIDA D MEEK          45  497   0.909 133.500  NO
 107 29328 43  3 FLORIDA D BROWN  CORR   35  531   0.934 133.500  NO
 107 29776 13  6 NEW YOR D MEEKS  GREG   36  515   0.930 133.500  NO
 107 15033 23 12 MICHIGA D LEVIN  SAND   24  552   0.957 136.500  NO
 107 29528  2  2 MAINE   D BALDACCI      33  540   0.939 136.500  NO
 107 29373 12 13 NEW JER D MENENDEZ      74  541   0.863 138.500  NO
 107 14873 52  5 MARYLAN D HOYER         21  543   0.961 138.500  YES
 107 29564  5  1 RHODE I D KENNEDY       40  542   0.926 140.500  YES
 107 14430 23  9 MICHIGA D KILDEE        50  556   0.910 140.500  NO
 107 14413 73  6 WASHING D DICKS         47  541   0.913 142.500  YES
 107 29769 25  3 WISCONS D KIND          56  546   0.897 142.500  YES
 107 15408 52  3 MARYLAN D CARDIN        36  555   0.935 144.000  NO
 107 29149 40  8 VIRGINI D MORAN         64  537   0.881 146.000  NO  ******************************
 107 29943 49 20 TEXAS   D GONZALEZ      37  537   0.931 146.000  NO  Cutpoint -- NO Below, YES Above
 107 29925 13  7 NEW YOR D CROWLEY  JO   48  543   0.912 146.000  YES ******************************
 107 29132 12  1 NEW JER D ANDREWS  RO   45  549   0.918 148.000  YES
 107 29705 71 10 CALIFOR D TAUSCHER      47  555   0.915 149.500  YES
 107 29318 71 36 CALIFOR D HARMAN        56  540   0.896 149.500  YES
 107 20104 71 27 CALIFOR D SCHIFF        41  551   0.926 151.000  YES
 107 29744 13  4 NEW YOR D MCCARTHY      51  552   0.908 152.000  YES
 107 29355 52  4 MARYLAN D WYNN          42  548   0.923 153.500  YES
 107 20129 13  2 NEW YOR D ISRAEL        65  547   0.881 153.500  YES
 107 29714 43 11 FLORIDA D DAVIS         55  549   0.900 155.500  YES
 107 29712  1  5 CONNECT D MALONEY       53  536   0.901 155.500  NO
 107 29768 73  9 WASHING D SMITH  ADAM   61  531   0.885 157.500  YES
 107 29747 24  6 OHIO    D STRICKLAND    86  553   0.844 157.500  NO
 107 20145 73  2 WASHING D LARSEN        89  554   0.839 159.500  NO
 107 29938 73  3 WASHING D BAIRD  BRIA   86  549   0.843 159.500  NO
 107 29942 71 42 CALIFOR D BACA  JOE     36  550   0.935 161.000  NO
 107 29763 49 15 TEXAS   D HINOJOSA      32  509   0.937 162.000  NO
 107 29757 49  1 TEXAS   D SANDLIN       67  550   0.878 163.500  YES
 107 29756 54  9 TENNESS D FORD          41  525   0.922 163.500  YES
 107 14626 49 24 TEXAS   D FROST         38  537   0.929 165.500  YES
 107 29745 47  2 NORTH C D ETHERIDGE     47  555   0.915 165.500  YES
 107 15635 71 18 CALIFOR D CONDIT        95  532   0.821 167.000  NO
 107 29574 49 25 TEXAS   D BENTSEN       43  529   0.919 168.000  YES
 107 15010 40  9 VIRGINI D BOUCHER       55  525   0.895 169.000  YES
 107 29915 32  3 KANSAS  D MOORE  DENN   97  553   0.825 170.500  YES
 107 29761 49  9 TEXAS   D LAMPSON       38  535   0.929 170.500  YES
 107 29703 42  2 ARKANSA D SNYDER        56  530   0.894 172.000  NO
 107 29764 49 16 TEXAS   D REYES         38  500   0.924 173.000  NO
 107 29117 22  3 INDIANA D ROEMER        73  554   0.868 174.000  YES
 107 29914 22  9 INDIANA D HILL  BARON   63  544   0.884 175.000  YES
 107 29561 14 18 PENNSYL D DOYLE         48  542   0.911 176.000  NO
 107 15104 14 11 PENNSYL D KANJORSKI     66  556   0.881 177.000  YES
 107 29562 14 20 PENNSYL D MASCARA       37  527   0.930 178.000  YES
 107 29384 36  1 NORTH D D POMEROY       53  550   0.904 179.000  YES
 107 15064 48  5 SOUTH C D SPRATT        41  547   0.925 180.000  YES
 107 15450 54  5 TENNESS D CLEMENT       40  523   0.924 181.000  YES
 107 29721 31  3 IOWA    D BOSWELL       58  555   0.895 182.500  YES
 107 15100 54  6 TENNESS D GORDON        52  523   0.901 182.500  YES
 107 20140 67  2 UTAH    D MATHESON      71  553   0.872 184.000  YES
 107 29105 71 20 CALIFOR D DOOLEY        77  518   0.851 185.000  YES
 107 29339 44  2 GEORGIA D BISHOP        45  535   0.916 186.000  YES
 107 29144 49 11 TEXAS   D EDWARDS  CH   54  544   0.901 187.000  YES
 107 20132 53  2 OKLAHOM D CARSON        65  549   0.882 188.000  YES
 107 15049 49 27 TEXAS   D ORTIZ         51  540   0.906 189.000
 107 29702 42  1 ARKANSA D BERRY         84  556   0.849 190.000  YES
 107 29746 47  7 NORTH C D MCINTYRE      64  539   0.881 191.500  YES
 107 14632 24  3 OHIO    D HALL  TONY    53  469   0.887 191.500  YES
 107 29758 49  2 TEXAS   D TURNER        45  552   0.918 193.000  YES
 107 15453 21 12 ILLINOI D COSTELLO     118  552   0.786 194.500  NO
 107 14451 34  4 MISSOUR D SKELTON       51  539   0.905 194.500  YES
 107 20102 42  4 ARKANSA D ROSS          46  555   0.917 196.000  YES
 107 15083 56  1 WEST VI D MOLLOHAN      78  527   0.852 197.000  NO
 107 14072 14 12 PENNSYL D MURTHA        67  505   0.867 198.000  YES
 107 29396 14  6 PENNSYL D HOLDEN        53  549   0.903 199.000  YES
 107 29363 23  5 MICHIGA D BARCIA        88  545   0.839 200.000  YES
 107 29127 33  7 MINNESO D PETERSON  C  148  528   0.720 201.000  YES
 107 15036 21  3 ILLINOI D LIPINSKI      69  457   0.849 202.000  NO
 107 29913 21 19 ILLINOI D PHELPS  DAV   52  551   0.906 203.000  YES
 107 15628 54  8 TENNESS D TANNER        83  543   0.847 204.000  YES
 107 15637 46  5 MISSISS D TAYLOR  GEN  157  550   0.715 205.000  YES
 107 29713 43  2 FLORIDA D BOYD          73  543   0.866 206.000  YES
 107 14664 49 17 TEXAS   D STENHOLM      76  548   0.861 207.000  YES
 107 29727 45  7 LOUISIA D JOHN          45  524   0.914 208.000  YES
 107 29920 46  4 MISSISS D SHOWS  RONN   92  527   0.825 209.000  YES
 107 15060 40  4 VIRGINI D SISISKY        0   27   1.000 210.000
 107 29100 41  5 ALABAMA D CRAMER        28  537   0.948 211.000  YES
 107 29916 51  4 KENTUCK D LUCAS  KEN    56  553   0.899 212.000  YES              
 107 15434 52  8 MARYLAN R MORELLA       64  545   0.883 213.000  NO
 107 14432 31  1 IOWA    R LEACH  JAME   46  531   0.913 214.000  NO
 107 29521 31  4 IOWA    R GANSKE        33  533   0.938 215.000  YES
 107 29126 33  3 MINNESO R RAMSTAD      105  556   0.811 216.000  YES
 107 14015 13 20 NEW YOR R GILMAN        50  542   0.908 217.500  YES
 107 15028  1  6 CONNECT R JOHNSON  NA   47  537   0.912 217.500  YES
 107 15449  1  4 CONNECT R SHAYS         67  549   0.878 219.500  YES
 107 15423 13 31 NEW YOR R HOUGHTON      38  491   0.923 219.500  NO
 107 29327 11  1 DELAWAR R CASTLE        47  554   0.915 221.000  YES
 107 20109  1  2 CONNECT R SIMMONS       33  554   0.940 222.500  YES
 107 29539 12  2 NEW JER R LOBIONDO      87  556   0.844 222.500  YES
 107 14855 12  5 NEW JER R ROUKEMA       29  450   0.936 225.000  YES
 107 15007 13 23 NEW YOR R BOEHLERT      32  555   0.942 225.000  YES
 107 29320 71 38 CALIFOR R HORN          32  548   0.942 225.000  YES
 107 29538  4  2 NEW HAM R BASS          44  550   0.920 227.000  YES
 107 29122 52  1 MARYLAN R GILCHREST     35  531   0.934 228.500  YES
 107 29397 14  8 PENNSYL R GREENWOOD     35  537   0.935 228.500  YES
 107 20115 21 10 ILLINOI R KIRK          27  546   0.951 230.000  YES
 107 29544 13 19 NEW YOR R KELLY         54  551   0.902 231.000  YES
 107 29510 43 16 FLORIDA R FOLEY         22  547   0.960 232.000  YES
 107 29541 12 11 NEW JER R FRELINGHUYS   35  546   0.936 233.000  YES
 107 20127 12  7 NEW JER R FERGUSON      36  543   0.934 234.000  YES
 107 20116 21 15 ILLINOI R JOHNSON       40  554   0.928 235.000  YES
 107 15630 13 25 NEW YOR R WALSH         20  545   0.963 236.000  YES
 107 29381 13 30 NEW YOR R QUINN         20  506   0.960 237.500  YES
 107 20128 13  1 NEW YOR R GRUCCI        23  551   0.958 237.500  YES
 107 14869 40 10 VIRGINI R WOLF          25  548   0.954 240.500  YES
 107 20135 14 19 PENNSYL R PLATTS        38  527   0.928 240.500  YES
 107 29567 54  3 TENNESS R WAMP          43  547   0.921 240.500  YES
 107 15121 24 17 OHIO    D TRAFICANT     17  368   0.954 240.500
 107 29754 37  1 SOUTH D R THUNE         31  550   0.944 243.000  YES
 107 29902 71  3 CALIFOR R OSE  DOUG     26  524   0.950 244.000  YES
 107 15447 14  7 PENNSYL R WELDON        29  515   0.944 245.000  YES
 107 15112 12  3 NEW JER R SAXTON        31  544   0.943 246.000  YES
 107 29941 25  8 WISCONS R GREEN  MARK   37  555   0.933 247.500  YES
 107 39316 13 24 NEW YOR R MCHUGH  JOH   22  536   0.959 247.500  YES
 107 29553 24 19 OHIO    R LATOURETTE    28  531   0.947 251.500  YES
 107 29933 14 10 PENNSYL R SHERWOOD  D   18  546   0.967 251.500  YES
 107 20146 56  2 WEST VI R CAPITO        28  553   0.949 251.500  YES
 107 14863 12  4 NEW JER R SMITH  CHRI   48  546   0.912 251.500  YES
 107 29928 13 27 NEW YOR R REYNOLDS  T   13  546   0.976 251.500  YES
 107 29563 14 21 PENNSYL R ENGLISH       62  540   0.885 251.500  YES
 107 29927 13 22 NEW YOR R SWEENEY  JO   39  534   0.927 256.500  YES
 107 14045 24 16 OHIO    R REGULA        15  554   0.973 256.500  YES
 107 29773 13 13 NEW YOR R FOSSELLA      34  531   0.936 256.500  YES
 107 29375 13  3 NEW YOR R KING          25  548   0.954 256.500  YES
 107 29552 24 18 OHIO    R NEY           29  549   0.947 259.500  YES
 107 29517 21 18 ILLINOI R LAHOOD        23  548   0.958 259.500  YES
 107 29336 43 21 FLORIDA R DIAZ-BALART   18  535   0.966 262.500  YES
 107 15634 43 18 FLORIDA R ROS-LEHTINE   16  512   0.969 262.500  YES
 107 15417 21 14 ILLINOI R HASTERT        0  100   1.000 262.500  YES
 107 29939 25  1 WISCONS R RYAN  PAUL    34  536   0.937 262.500  YES
 107 29118 31  2 IOWA    R NUSSLE        17  545   0.969 265.500  YES
 107 29516 21 11 ILLINOI R WELLER        59  550   0.893 265.500  YES
 107 29362 23  3 MICHIGA R EHLERS        48  551   0.913 269.000  YES
 107 14860 43 22 FLORIDA R SHAW          22  539   0.959 269.000  YES
 107 29576 40 11 VIRGINI R DAVIS         34  539   0.937 269.000  YES
 107 29386 24  2 OHIO    R PORTMAN       14  548   0.974 269.000  YES
 107 29529 52  2 MARYLAN R EHRLICH       30  524   0.943 269.000  YES
 107 29921 35  2 NEBRASK R TERRY  LEE    28  551   0.949 272.500  YES
 107 29917 51  6 KENTUCK R FLETCHER  E   16  545   0.971 272.500  YES
 107 29779 66  1 NEW MEX R WILSON        24  550   0.956 274.500  YES
 107 29775 71 44 CALIFOR R BONO  MARY    26  534   0.951 274.500  YES
 107 15105 61  5 ARIZONA R KOLBE         47  550   0.915 276.500  YES
 107 20126 35  3 NEBRASK R OSBORNE       28  556   0.950 276.500  YES
 107 15604 24  5 OHIO    R GILLMOR       26  536   0.951 280.000  YES
 107 14644 71 40 CALIFOR R LEWIS  JERR   15  515   0.971 280.000  YES
 107 29912 21 13 ILLINOI R BIGGERT  JU   35  554   0.937 280.000  YES
 107 29390 24 15 OHIO    R PRYCE         22  523   0.958 280.000  YES
 107 15026 14 17 PENNSYL R GEKAS         14  551   0.975 280.000  YES
 107 20130 24 12 OHIO    R TIBERI        23  553   0.958 285.000  YES
 107 29136 24  7 OHIO    R HOBSON        15  551   0.973 285.000  YES
 107 20133 14  4 PENNSYL R HART          26  553   0.953 285.000  YES
 107 29323 71 43 CALIFOR R CALVERT        8  540   0.985 285.000  YES
 107 29740  4  1 NEW HAM R SUNUNU        37  550   0.933 285.000  YES
 107 14854 51  5 KENTUCK R ROGERS        11  546   0.980 288.000  YES
 107 14875 24  4 OHIO    R OXLEY          8  520   0.985 292.500  YES
 107 29704 42  3 ARKANSA R HUTCHINSON    10  203   0.951 292.500  YES
 107 29365 23 11 MICHIGA R KNOLLENBERG    7  547   0.987 292.500  YES
 107 14066 81  1 ALASKA  R YOUNG  DON    15  455   0.967 292.500  YES
 107 13047 43 10 FLORIDA R YOUNG  BILL   19  525   0.964 292.500  YES
 107 29137 24  8 OHIO    R BOEHNER       11  532   0.979 292.500  YES
 107 29910 63  2 IDAHO   R SIMPSON  MI   14  544   0.974 292.500  YES
 107 29751 14  5 PENNSYL R PETERSON      18  530   0.966 292.500  YES
 107 29909 44  6 GEORGIA R ISAKSON  JO   14  553   0.975 299.000  YES
 107 15413 71 23 CALIFOR R GALLEGLY      24  539   0.955 299.000  YES
 107 29522 31  5 IOWA    R LATHAM        34  545   0.938 299.000  YES
 107 29364 23  7 MICHIGA R SMITH  NICK   54  536   0.899 299.000  YES
 107 14605 35  1 NEBRASK R BEREUTER      44  544   0.919 299.000  YES
 107 15446 23  6 MICHIGA R UPTON         45  556   0.919 303.000  YES
 107 20107 71 48 CALIFOR R ISSA          17  540   0.969 303.000  YES
 107 29581 73  5 WASHING R NETHERCUTT    15  526   0.971 303.000  YES
 107 29739 65  2 NEVADA  R GIBBONS       24  542   0.956 307.000  YES
 107 29725 51  3 KENTUCK R NORTHUP       10  552   0.982 307.000  YES
 107 14239 21  6 ILLINOI R HYDE          14  541   0.974 307.000  YES
 107 15605 43 14 FLORIDA R GOSS          18  546   0.967 307.000  YES
 107 15006 43  9 FLORIDA R BILIRAKIS     32  546   0.941 307.000  YES
 107 14669 71 21 CALIFOR R THOMAS  WIL   19  530   0.964 315.500  YES
 107 39302 49 23 TEXAS   R BONILLA       14  546   0.974 315.500  YES
 107 29580 73  4 WASHING R HASTINGS      12  544   0.978 315.500  YES
 107 29107 71 51 CALIFOR R CUNNINGHAM    17  548   0.969 315.500  YES
 107 29505 71 19 CALIFOR R RADANOVICH    25  513   0.951 315.500  YES
 107 29350 22  5 INDIANA R BUYER         10  520   0.981 315.500  YES
 107 15445 49 21 TEXAS   R SMITH  LAMA    7  528   0.987 315.500  YES
 107 94679 45  3 LOUISIA R TAUZIN         5  547   0.991 315.500  YES
 107 29315 71 25 CALIFOR R MCKEON        11  553   0.980 315.500  YES
 107 39312 73  8 WASHING R DUNN          25  531   0.953 315.500  YES
 107 14861 66  2 NEW MEX R SKEEN         14  554   0.975 315.500  YES
 107 14813 71 28 CALIFOR R DREIER  DAV   28  553   0.949 315.500  YES
 107 29932 72  2 OREGON  R WALDEN  GRE   16  554   0.971 328.500  YES
 107 20101 42  3 ARKANSA R BOOZMAN        2  219   0.991 328.500  YES
 107 29124 23  4 MICHIGA R CAMP          15  553   0.973 328.500  YES
 107 29726 45  5 LOUISIA R COOKSEY        7  520   0.987 328.500  YES
 107 15451 45  4 LOUISIA R MCCRERY       11  537   0.980 328.500  YES
 107 29737 34  9 MISSOUR R HULSHOF       51  532   0.904 328.500  YES
 107 29755 54  1 TENNESS R JENKINS       21  549   0.962 328.500  YES
 107 20131 53  1 OKLAHOM R SULLIVAN       1  144   0.993 328.500  YES
 107 29301 41  6 ALABAMA R BACHUS        17  531   0.968 328.500  YES
 107 15090 41  1 ALABAMA R CALLAHAN       8  511   0.984 328.500  YES
 107 29525 51  1 KENTUCK R WHITFIELD     20  540   0.963 328.500  YES
 107 20120 23  8 MICHIGA R ROGERS        22  554   0.960 328.500  YES
 107 20125 64  1 MONTANA R REHBERG       14  554   0.975 328.500  YES
 107 29736 34  8 MISSOUR R EMERSON       33  525   0.937 328.500  YES
 107 15402 47 10 NORTH C R BALLENGER     16  531   0.970 339.000  YES
 107 29393 53  6 OKLAHOM R LUCAS         13  549   0.976 339.000  YES
 107 20142 40  2 VIRGINI R SCHROCK       12  552   0.978 339.000  YES
 107 20111 43  4 FLORIDA R CRENSHAW       8  556   0.986 339.000  YES
 107 29762 49 12 TEXAS   R GRANGER       12  540   0.978 339.000  YES
 107 20134 14  9 PENNSYL R SHUSTER       17  473   0.964 339.000  YES
 107 20137 48  1 SOUTH C R BROWN         14  553   0.975 339.000  YES
 107 29340 44  3 GEORGIA R COLLINS       36  546   0.934 345.000  YES
 107 20113 43 12 FLORIDA R PUTNAM        12  533   0.977 345.000  YES
 107 29512 44  8 GEORGIA R CHAMBLISS      8  542   0.985 345.000  YES
 107 29548 47  5 NORTH C R BURR          19  544   0.965 345.000  YES
 107 20124 34  6 MISSOUR R GRAVES        23  554   0.958 345.000  YES
 107 29929 47  8 NORTH C R HAYES  ROBI   16  550   0.971 350.500  YES
 107 29584 68  1 WYOMING R CUBIN         15  374   0.960 350.500  YES
 107 29700 41  3 ALABAMA R RILEY         18  416   0.957 350.500  YES
 107 29749 53  3 OKLAHOM R WATKINS       12  533   0.977 350.500  YES
 107 29556 53  4 OKLAHOM R WATTS         15  530   0.972 350.500  YES
 107 20112 43  8 FLORIDA R KELLER        21  542   0.961 350.500  YES
 107 29534 46  1 MISSISS R WICKER        34  550   0.938 355.500  YES
 107 29734 46  3 MISSISS R PICKERING     26  547   0.952 355.500  YES
 107 29701 41  4 ALABAMA R ADERHOLT      57  538   0.894 355.500  YES
 107 20138 48  2 SOUTH C R WILSON         2  191   0.990 355.500  YES
 107 15401 45  6 LOUISIA R BAKER         12  535   0.978 360.000  YES
 107 29341 44 11 GEORGIA R LINDER         9  515   0.983 360.000  YES
 107 29331 43  7 FLORIDA R MICA          17  550   0.969 360.000  YES
 107 29532 33  1 MINNESO R GUTKNECHT     72  553   0.870 360.000  YES
 107 29333 43 13 FLORIDA R MILLER        24  523   0.954 360.000  YES
 107 13042 48  2 SOUTH C R SPENCE         5  154   0.968 365.000  YES
 107 29392 53  5 OKLAHOM R ISTOOK        20  525   0.962 365.000  YES
 107 29352 51  2 KENTUCK R LEWIS         16  550   0.971 365.000  YES
 107 14835 71 52 CALIFOR R HUNTER        24  525   0.954 365.000  YES
 107 29338 44  1 GEORGIA R KINGSTON      25  535   0.953 365.000  YES
 107 29519 22  4 INDIANA R SOUDER        28  535   0.948 370.500  YES
 107 29905 71 41 CALIFOR R MILLER  GAR   17  547   0.969 370.500  YES
 107 29918 45  1 LOUISIA R VITTER  DAV   12  533   0.977 370.500  YES
 107 29554 53  1 OKLAHOM R LARGENT       23  372   0.938 370.500  YES
 107 29549 47  9 NORTH C R MYRICK        25  540   0.954 370.500  YES
 107 29766 67  3 UTAH    R CANNON        23  503   0.954 370.500  YES
 107 20144 40  7 VIRGINI R CANTOR        18  549   0.967 374.500  YES
 107 29566 48  3 SOUTH C R GRAHAM        32  549   0.942 374.500  YES
 107 29524 32  4 KANSAS  R TIAHRT        24  549   0.956 378.500  YES
 107 29569 54  7 TENNESS R BRYANT        13  554   0.977 378.500  YES
 107 20143 40  4 VIRGINI R FORBES        15  425   0.965 378.500  YES
 107 29718 21 20 ILLINOI R SHIMKUS       20  553   0.964 378.500  YES
 107 29760 49  8 TEXAS   R BRADY         13  531   0.976 378.500  YES
 107 29572 49 13 TEXAS   R THORNBERRY    15  546   0.973 378.500  YES
 107 29326 62  3 COLORAD R MCINNIS       36  528   0.932 385.000  YES
 107 20141 40  1 VIRGINI R DAVIS         38  555   0.932 385.000  YES
 107 14829 67  1 UTAH    R HANSEN        19  533   0.964 385.000  YES
 107 99342 44  9 GEORGIA R DEAL          23  542   0.958 385.000  YES
 107 15093 49 19 TEXAS   R COMBEST       16  516   0.969 385.000  YES
 107 14052 14  9 PENNSYL R SHUSTER        0    4   1.000 385.000  YES
 107 20121 33  2 MINNESO R KENNEDY       64  534   0.880 385.000  YES
 107 29735 34  7 MISSOUR R BLUNT         11  531   0.979 390.000  YES
 107 15420 71  2 CALIFOR R HERGER        29  543   0.947 390.000  YES
 107 39308 40  6 VIRGINI R GOODLATTE     30  555   0.946 390.000  YES
 107 14828 49  4 TEXAS   D HALL  RALPH  106  553   0.808 392.000  YES
 107 29300 41  2 ALABAMA R EVERETT       22  526   0.958 395.000  YES
 107 15085 49  6 TEXAS   R BARTON        19  513   0.963 395.000  YES
 107 29513 44 10 GEORGIA R NORWOOD       22  529   0.958 395.000  YES
 107 15014 22  6 INDIANA R BURTON        18  431   0.958 395.000  YES
 107 29135 47 11 NORTH C R TAYLOR  CHA   24  535   0.955 395.000  YES
 107 14454 61  3 ARIZONA R STUMP         24  534   0.955 398.000  YES
 107 29349 21 16 ILLINOI R MANZULLO      30  547   0.945 399.000  YES
 107 29568 54  4 TENNESS R HILLEARY      38  528   0.928 400.000  YES
 107 29509 43 15 FLORIDA R WELDON        31  546   0.943 401.500  YES
 107 29722 32  1 KANSAS  R MORAN         79  556   0.858 401.500  YES
 107 29752 14 16 PENNSYL R PITTS         33  546   0.940 403.500  YES
 107 29143 49  3 TEXAS   R JOHNSON  SA   29  539   0.946 403.500  YES
 107 39508 43  1 FLORIDA R SCARBOROUGH   25  220   0.886 405.000  YES
 107 29361 23  2 MICHIGA R HOEKSTRA      52  550   0.905 408.500  YES
 107 20110 43  1 FLORIDA R MILLER         7  263   0.973 408.500  YES
 107 29502 61  6 ARIZONA R HAYWORTH      20  555   0.964 408.500  YES
 107 15601 71 47 CALIFOR R COX  CHRIST   33  511   0.935 408.500  YES
 107 15094 49 22 TEXAS   R DELAY         18  530   0.966 408.500  YES
 107 29356 52  6 MARYLAN R BARTLETT      39  551   0.929 408.500  YES
 107 15125 49 26 TEXAS   R ARMEY         20  544   0.963 412.500  YES
 107 29550 24  1 OHIO    R CHABOT        40  555   0.928 412.500  YES
 107 15092 47  6 NORTH C R COBLE         42  555   0.924 414.000  YES
 107 29311 71 11 CALIFOR R POMBO         30  542   0.945 416.000  YES
 107 29104 71  4 CALIFOR R DOOLITTLE     19  543   0.965 416.000  YES
 107 29936 48  4 SOUTH C R DEMINT  JIM   21  552   0.962 416.000  YES
 107 12041 21  8 ILLINOI R CRANE         62  506   0.877 418.500  YES
 107 29759 49  5 TEXAS   R SESSIONS      19  535   0.964 418.500  YES
 107 29723 32  2 KANSAS  R RYUN          19  551   0.966 420.000  YES
 107 20123 34  2 MISSOUR R AKIN          23  556   0.959 421.500  YES
 107 20114 63  1 IDAHO   R OTTER         31  552   0.944 421.500  YES
 107 20117 22  2 INDIANA R PENCE         22  549   0.960 423.000  YES
 107 20139 49  7 TEXAS   R CULBERSON     21  541   0.961 424.000  YES
 107 15455 54  2 TENNESS R DUNCAN  JR.   46  552   0.917 425.000  NO
 107 15627 43  6 FLORIDA R STEARNS       38  548   0.931 426.000  YES
 107 99767 40  5 VIRGINI I GOODE         47  550   0.915 427.500  YES
 107 29511 44  7 GEORGIA R BARR          29  537   0.946 427.500  YES
 107 29501 61  4 ARIZONA R SHADEGG       37  552   0.933 429.000  YES
 107 29546 47  3 NORTH C R JONES         51  536   0.905 430.000  YES
 107 15621 71 45 CALIFOR R ROHRABACHER   44  552   0.920 431.000  YES
 107 14675 25  6 WISCONS R PETRI         69  552   0.875 432.000  YES
 107 15419 62  5 COLORAD R HEFLEY        93  538   0.827 433.000  YES
 107 29935 14 15 PENNSYL R TOOMEY  PAT   43  542   0.921 434.000  YES
 107 20118 22  7 INDIANA R KERNS         32  556   0.942 435.000  YES
 107 29520 22  8 INDIANA R HOSTETTLER    41  532   0.923 436.000  NO
 107 14657 25  9 WISCONS R SENSENBRENN   48  549   0.913 437.000  YES
 107 29321 71 39 CALIFOR R ROYCE         38  547   0.931 438.000  YES
 107 29907 62  6 COLORAD R TANCREDO  T   37  511   0.928 439.000  YES
 107 29711 62  4 COLORAD R SCHAFFER  B   78  523   0.851 440.000  YES
 107 14290 49 14 TEXAS   R PAUL          91  531   0.829 441.000  NO
 107 20100 61  1 ARIZONA R FLAKE         66  549   0.880 442.000  YES


12 August 2002 Posting

Although a vote in Congress on whether or not to go to war with Iraq is probably many months away, the fact that many members of Congress are already offering their opinions on the matter for and against means that it is possible to at least do some preliminary predictions of the roll call votes in the House and Senate. A good place to start is with the roll calls on the Gulf War of 1991.

The figure below shows the roll call votes on 12 January 1991 approving the Gulf War. In the House the vote was 250 - 183 (R 164 - 3, D 86 - 179, ND 33 - 147, SD 53 - 32). The DW-NOMINATE scaling of the roll call correctly classifies 88.6% (382 of 431 -- 2 members did not vote enough in the 102nd House to be scaled) of the votes. In the Senate the vote was 52 - 47 (R 42 - 2, D 10 - 45, ND 3 - 35, SD 7 - 10). The DW-NOMINATE scaling of the roll call correctly classifies 87.9% (87 of 99) of the votes. The cross classifications are:

                   Actual Vote House                  Actual Vote Senate
                      Yea   Nay                             Yea   Nay
                    ------------                          ------------
               Yea  | 223    23 |246                 Yea  |  44     4 | 48
                    |           |                         |           |
         Predicted  |           |              Predicted  |           |   
            Vote    |           |                 Vote    |           |
                    |           |                         |           |
               Nay  |  26   159 |185                 Nay  |   8    43 | 51
                    ---------------                       ---------------
                      249   182 |431                         52    47 | 99
The Proportional Reduction in Error (PRE) for the spatial model is (182 - 49)/182 = .731 for the House and (47 - 12)/47 = .745 for the Senate. A naive two-party model (each member votes with the majority of his or her party) would correctly classify 344 of 431 votes (79.6%) in the House and 87 of 99 votes (87.9%) in the Senate. (I include Sanders (I-VT) with the Democrats for this analysis.)

In the figure below the tokens are Red if the member voted "Yea" (for the Gulf War) and Blue if the member voted "Nay" (against the Gulf War). The R tokens are Republicans, the D tokens are Northern Democrats, and the S tokens are Southern Democrats. The black lines are the estimated cutting lines for the roll calls.



The next figure shows the 107th House and Senate with the 1991 cutting lines. Here Democrats are Red and Republicans are Blue. The 1991 cutting line for the 107th would predict that a motion for War with Iraq would easily pass in the House. Although there are fewer Democrats predicted to vote for the War, the Republicans are now a majority (at least until January, 2003!) and would probably vote overwhemingly for War. The situation in the Senate is much closer. With the 1991 cutting line the vote would be a tossup because of probable Republican defections. Hagel (R-NE) would probably vote against going to War and McCain (R-AZ) is always a wildcard.