Summary – 10 September 2002

 

 

1879 – 2002 Democrat - Republican Party system in Congress 

 

  1. Competitive until Great Depression
  2. Dominated by Democrats 1930 – 1994 (Republicans won 1946 and 1952 elections, won Senate in 1980 elections)
  3. 1960s – 1990s -- Republicans become dominate political party in the South (11 States of the Confederacy + KY + OK)

Economic Changes – 1929 – 2002

  1. Real GDP increases from 1.5 Trillion in 1947 to 9.5 Trillion in 2002
  2. Real per capita GDP (the correct measure of economic improvement) increased from about $10,000 per capita in 1947 to about $34,000 in 2001.
  3. The business cycle has moderated substantially after WWII – recessions are not as sharp as they were before WWII.  The Reagan and Clinton Booms were separated by only one year of slight (about –1%) negative growth.
  4. Unemployment rose from 3% in 1929 to a peak of 24.9% in 1933 – the Great Depression.  It fell to about 14% in 1937 before President Roosevelt tried to balance the budget sending the economy back into recession.
  5. The economy recovered sharply between 1933 and 1937 – it is unclear how much of this was due to President Roosevelt’s New Deal economic policies.  Unemployment was clearly reduced by the works projects of the New Deal.
  6. The build-up to WWII produced strong economic growth 1938-1941 and by 1941 unemployment was down to 9% (still a very high level compared to the 1920s).
  7. Since the end of WWII overall unemployment has never gone above 10%. 
  8. Non-White Unemployment has been consistently higher than White unemployment – a difference of around 5%.
  9. During the Clinton economic boom non-White unemployment dropped faster than White unemployment.
  10. Since the 1950s there has been a tremendous increase in the labor force participation of women.